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Mathematical Models Matter: A Course for Advocates

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  1. Lesson 1: What Are Mathematical Models And What Are they Used For?
    3 Topics
  2. Lesson 2: Key Components Of Mathematical Models And Common Terminology
    2 Topics
    |
    1 Quiz
  3. Lesson 3: Limitations Of Mathematical Modeling
  4. Lesson 4: Making Sense Of Mathematical Modeling Studies
    3 Topics
  5. Lesson 5: Making Models Matter
  6. Course Summary

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Topic 1: Defining Mathematical Models and their Uses

Click on the introduction video.

Mathematical models have many uses in public health. Click through the slides to learn about the role of mathematical models.

Understand the spread of diseases or the future course of an outbreak
Mathematical models can help us to understand how a disease is spread. They can help us anticipate the future course of an outbreak to better understand the potential impact in terms of how much of a population could potentially become infected. Models can also help us understand more about particular groups of people, for example who might be at greatest risk for contracting HIV or COVID-19.
Read more here: COVID-19 models helped explain how many cases might occur given certain scenarios.
Evaluate the impact of public health interventions
Models have been used to estimate the impact of HIV prevention interventions and answer questions about their future impact. Mathematical models do not predict the future, but they can help us understand what might happen in a given scenario.
Read more here: This COVID-19 model was used to evaluate the impact of physical distancing policies in the UK.
Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of public health interventions
Cost-effectiveness is an estimation of the value for money of an intervention. Estimating the cost-effectiveness of interventions can help us choose interventions or programs that will maximize health for the available resources. Cost-effectiveness will be discussed in greater detail in Lesson 2.
Read more here: In this study, mathematical modeling was used to explore the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of the Dapivirine Vaginal Ring in different implementation scenarios alongside the scale-up of other HIV prevention interventions.
When clinical trials are not possible
When researchers cannot conduct clinical trials (e.g., because it would be considered unethical or extremely expensive to do so), mathematical models can be used to compare scenarios.
Read more here: In this study, three large cluster randomized controlled trials (C-RCTs) were commissioned by PEPFAR to measure the impact of combination prevention packages on HIV incidence. Models were used to inform the design and interpretation of C-RCTs of combination interventions.
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